US Open Betting Analysis: Ofner vs Borges, Hijikata vs Kotov (August 27)

Grant Halverson/Getty. Pictured: Rinky Hijikata.

Let the madness begin!

Monday brings us the first day of the US Open main draw. That means 64 matches between the men's and women's draws, as the action comes fast and furious from New York City.

Here's a pair of men's matches I think provide some decent value on the action-packed slate. Read on for my US Open betting analysis.

Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing US Open matches.

11 a.m. ET

First up on Court 8, we see Sebastian Ofner taking on Nuno Borges.

One of the surprise players of the 2023 campaign, Ofner burst onto the scene during the clay swing, where he made a slew of deep runs at the Challenger Tour level before qualifying for the French Open and reaching the second week.

It shouldn't come as a huge surprise to see the Austrian break through, considering he has a huge game, featuring a strong serve and forehand as well as decent weight on that forehand wing.

He's more natural on clay courts, but his game should lend itself to success on all surfaces (we saw another Challenger final from him on grass), as he has the ability to rack up his fair share of cheap points.

He has struggled for form this summer, but that isn't unique to him in this matchup, and he played some decent tennis in a loss on clay to Alex Molcan and on hard courts last week against Alex Michelsen in Winston-Salem.

With Borges struggling even more, I'm not overly concerned with Ofner's close losses.

As for Borges, the underpowered Portuguese pro hasn't found much success since March. There was one decent run on grass at the Challenger level and that's about it.

He was also slightly injured post-Wimbledon and just made his return, losing in qualifying to Daniel Galan in Cincinnati and then being thumped in Winston-Salem by another returning player in Jack Draper.

The game isn't anything special and the form leaves a lot to be desired. I have Ofner as a much larger favorite here.

Pick: Ofner ML (-145 via DraftKings)

12:30 p.m. ET

There are a few reasons to like with Rinky Hijikata in this spot.

The first is the fact that he's the more reliable player. He's the more natural and comfortable player on hard courts, and he also produces a consistent level of play, especially relative to the mercurial Pavel Kotov.

The other part of this is the fact that I trust Hijikata in a best-of-five match.

The Australian is the player far less likely to see the rigors of a fifth set during summer months break him down physically and lead to a loss.

Further, I don't think he gives up as much in the power department as he would in many other potential matches. Hijikata's serve looked much stronger than usual during the grass swing (quicker, lower-bouncing courts tend to do that to an underpowered serve) and should get a bit of a boost from the medium-paced hard courts (especially on outer courts) at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

Kotov still likely boasts the bigger serve, but Hijikata should still see chances to apply pressure and his baseline game is far more consistent.

Pick: Hijikata ML (-125 via BetMGM)

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.